Los efectos macroeconómicos de la transición energética

Según Pisani-Ferry, no parecen muy positivos en el corto plazo (sí en el largo):

Because of the accelerated pace of climate change and the magnitude of the effort involved in decarbonizing the economy, while at the same time investing in adaptation, the transition to net zero is likely to involve, over a 30-year period, major shifts in growth patterns. Effects will include a significant negative supply shock, an investment surge sizable enough to affect the global equilibrium interest rate, large adverse consumer welfare effects, distributional shifts, and substantial pressure on public finances. 

Leaving aside many dimensions of the issue—such as stranded assets and the trade and exchange rate consequences of decarbonization—a simple exploration of the essential mechanisms at work suggests that the transition to net zero will confront policymakers with serious macroeconomic difficulties. This transition is unlikely to be benign and policymakers should get ready for tough choices.

Leed el policy brief completo, que es cortito. Gracias a Isidoro Tapia por la pista.