miércoles, 21 de octubre de 2009

Primas vs I+D para la fotovoltaica

Un artículo en Energy Journal de Gregory Nemet y Erin Baker. Las conclusiones:

The central policy implication of these results is that governments must find a way to engender this R&D, whether it is funded by the government itself or by the private sector in response to changing demand conditions. In fact, one might argue that the key question policy makers face in regards to PV development is how to encourage this R&D, rather than how to support economies of scale and learning-by-doing.
We find that a case can still be made for subsidies, through our analysis
of stochastic dominance. Because of the possibility of R&D failure, the benefits of subsidies second-order stochastically dominate those of R&D. In the event of R&D failure, subsidies make the costs of PV much lower than they otherwise would be, albeit not at levels close to the target. The importance of subsidies as a hedge against inherently uncertain R&D programs depends on the value that society places on the availability of a low-carbon energy source that is moderately inexpensive—that is, unlikely to be competitive with all other technologies, but perhaps inexpensive enough to be deployed at a large enough scale to diversify energy supply.

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