sábado, 24 de mayo de 2008

Nordhaus sobre la economía del cambio climático

Nordhaus acaba de publicar un libro sobre la economía del cambio climático. Para los que ya conozcan su obra, nada nuevo realmente (tasa de descuento del 4%, sin consideración por los posibles riesgos catastróficos). Así que ya se puede adivinar qué opina, por ejemplo, de las propuestas de Stern... No me he leído el libro, pero sí he echado un vistazo a su revisión en el NY Review of Books (por cierto, también criticada a su vez en Real Climate). Cosas que me han llamado la atención:

Interesante en el marco del debate sobre la necesidad de medidas "command-and-control" frente a precios bajos del CO2:
Whether someone is serious about tackling the global-warming problem can be readily gauged by listening to what he or she says about the carbon price. Suppose you hear a public figure who speaks eloquently of the perils of global warming and proposes that the nation should move urgently to slow climate change. Suppose that person proposes regulating the fuel efficiency of cars, or requiring high-efficiency lightbulbs, or subsidizing ethanol, or providing research support for solar power—but nowhere does the proposal raise the price of carbon. You should conclude that the proposal is not really serious and does not recognize the central economic message about how to slow climate change. To a first approximation, raising the price of carbon is a necessary and sufficient step for tackling global warming. The rest is at best rhetoric and may actually be harmful in inducing economic inefficiencies.
Sobre la mejor política a utilizar:
The practical consequence for global-warming policy is that we should pursue the following objectives in order of priority. (1) Avoid the ambitious proposals. (2) Develop the science and technology for a low-cost backstop. (3) Negotiate an international treaty coming as close as possible to the optimal policy, in case the low-cost backstop fails. (4) Avoid an international treaty making the Kyoto Protocol policy permanent. These objectives are valid for economic reasons, independent of the scientific details of global warming.

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