Tendencias globales a 2030

Estos días me estoy leyendo un libro bastante curioso de Vaclav Smil, Global catastrophes and trends, que comienza, en el estilo sin complejos del autor, poniendo en solfa a todos los "ilusos" que pretenden predecir el futuro o al menos general escenarios plausibles. Los del National Intelligence Council parece que hacen caso a Smil y acaban de sacar su Global Trends 2030, Alternative Worlds en el que tampoco quieren predecir el futuro, sino hacer pensar:

Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report.