lunes, 14 de mayo de 2018

El futuro del GNL

Según Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

1 comentario:

Fernando Leanme dijo...

voy a copiar los dos primeros párrafos...

> The growth in demand for LNG used for baseload power generation will be limited as gas in many major economies can’t compete with renewables.

Renewables can't deliver baseload at all. Renewables coupled to natural gas and/or hydro can be coupled to create a "pseudo baseload generator". Turbines used to offset renewable downtime can be coupled to batteries to allow combined cycle turbines (which are more efficient than conventional gas turbines) to spin up and take the load.

> Rising renewable penetration will expand LNG’s role in providing flexible power generation to balance the electricity grid in many major economies.

What this really means is that renewables (solar and wind) can't deliver baseload and need "flexible power generation" ...they need natural gas turbines to back them up or the grid becomes highly unstable.

What these guys forget is that natural gas is getting depleted, therefore LNG prices will gradually increase, Lets assume Great Britain decides to install renewables to cover 70% of its needs, and the other 30% is covered with nuclear power. Let's also assume renewables can deliver 50% efficiency by overbuilding and installing lots of high voltage transmission. In that case natural gas will have to deliver around 50% of 70% or 35% of Great Britain's needs....for the foreseeable future. But North Sea gas is depleting fast...Groningen is already gone, Norwegian gas is also being depleted (plus the Germans want it to back up THEIR renewables). And this story is repeating everywhere.

These guys from Bloomberg seem to ignore that thus far the USA is the only country producing large volumes of gas from very low permeability rocks (the "shales" which aren't really shale), and that searches for such gas have already failed elsewhere (Poland) or are blocked by green NIMBYS (France). Therefore the use of natural gas to serve in a duet with renewables will be short lived...maybe a 2-3 decade period. And this option won't be feasible for poor countries, because the total cost structure will wreck their economy. So I expect LNG prices to start climbing in about 10-20 years, and I can't see poor countries submitting to European dictates and foregoing coal.