La curva de aprendizaje de la fotovoltaica

El Lawrence Berkeley Lab acaba de sacar un informe sobre la evolución de los costes de la fotovoltaica en EEUU de 1998 a 2007. Copio las conclusiones más interesantes:

• Among all PV systems in the dataset, average installed costs – in terms of real 2007 dollars per installed watt (DC-STC) and prior to receipt of any direct financial incentives or tax credits – declined from $10.5/W in 1998 to $7.6/W in 2007. This equates to an average annual reduction of $0.3/W, or 3.5%/yr in real dollars (es decir, un 32% en 9 años)
• The overall decline in installed costs over time is primarily attributable to a reduction in non-module costs, calculated as the total installed cost of each system minus a global annual average module price index. From 1998-2007, average non-module costs fell from $5.7/W to $3.6/W, representing 73% of the average decline in total installed costs over this period. This suggests that state and local PV deployment programs – which likely have a greater impact on non-module costs than on module prices – have been at least somewhat successful in spurring cost reductions.
• Both the decline in average costs and the narrowing of cost distributions halted in 2005 (el boom de la FV), with average costs and cost distributions remaining essentially unchanged from 2005-2007.
• PV installed costs exhibit significant economies of scale, with systems <2>750 kW averaging $6.8/W (i.e., about 25% less than the smallest systems).
• Although average installed costs remained flat from 2005-2007, recent developments portend a potentially dramatic shift over the next few years in the customer-economics of PV. Most industry experts anticipate an over-supply of PV modules in 2009, putting downward pressure on module prices, and presumably on total installed costs as well. In addition, the lifting of the cap on the Federal ITC for residential PV, also beginning in 2009, will further reduce net installed costs for residential installations, potentially leading to some degree of renewed emphasis on the residential market in the years ahead.