Garicano, sobre el futuro de Europa (o mejor, de las dos Europas)

Garicano no es optimista respecto a España y sus vecinos:

Nobody has yet supplied a political mechanism that can make the rear of Europe invest, modernise, and grow. The countries that most need the Draghi reforms have to find a domestic reason to want them. That means a growth coalition strong enough to take on pensioners and other incumbents at the same time, which is something few European democracies have managed durably. Macron’s first term came closest, before the Gilets Jaunes ended that, as we discussed here. On present evidence, the mechanism will have to come from a fiscal crisis, or a larger external shock. Without it, Europe will not converge on a new growth model. At best, it will split: a mobilising frontier, and a comfortable rear drifting into managed decline. 

Lectura muy recomendable.