Estimaciones del rebote macro de la eficiencia energética

 En este paper reciente, Berner et al nos advierten de que el rebote macro puede ser muy importante en las políticas de eficiencia energética:

Increasing energy efficiency is often considered to be one of the main ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, efficiency gains that reduce the cost of energy services result in energy use rebounding and potential energy use savings being eaten up. Empirical research that quantifies the economy-wide rebound effect while taking the dynamic economic responses to energy efficiency improvements into account is limited. We use a Structural Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive model (S-FAVAR) that allows us to track how energy use changes in response to an energy efficiency improvement while accounting for a vast range of potential confounders. We find economy-wide rebound effects of 78% to 101% after two years in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US. This implies that energy efficiency innovations alone may be of limited help in reducing future energy use and emphasizes the importance of tackling carbon emissions directly.

Los autores concluyen que lo que necesitamos es una política de reducción de emisiones...yo creo que sí, pero también que si las políticas de eficiencia van asociadas a una señal de precio que haga que la eficiencia energética no reduzca el coste efectivo de la energía, entonces el rebote será muy inferior.