viernes, 16 de febrero de 2018
El cambio horario, a debate en Europa
Sinceramente, nunca pensé que esto pudiera ocurrir: aunque muchas veces he cuestionado la necesidad del cambio horario (o del huso horario en que estamos), o más bien la necesidad de evaluar cuidadosamente sus efectos, siempre pensaba que el hecho de contar con normativa europea al respecto pararía todos los posibles intentos. Pero resulta que la normativa europea al menos se va a replantear, a iniciativa del Parlamento Europeo! Ojalá que se haga con buenos estudios detrás.
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El tema es muy interesante, debe ser relativamente facil preparar un modelo para investigarlo. Esto viene de un articulo sobre estudios que se han hecho sobre el tema. Me interesé en esto porque fui mentor de uno de los cuatro autores mencionados.
"The result of the study showed that electricity use went up in the counties adopting daylight saving time in 2006, costing $8.6 million more in household electricity bills. The conclusion reached by Kotchen and Grant was that while the lighting costs were reduced in the afternoons by daylight saving, the greater heating costs in the mornings, and more use of air-conditioners on hot afternoons more than offset these savings. Kotchen said the results were more “clear and unambiguous” than results in any other paper he had presented.
Kotchen and Grant's work reinforces the findings of an Australian study in 2007 by economists Ryan Kellogg and Hendrik Wolff, who studied the extension of daylight saving time for two months in New South Wales and Victoria for the 2000 Summer Olympics. They also found an increase in energy use.
Daylight saving was initially introduced, and has been extended, because it was believed to save energy, but the studies upon which this idea was based were conducted in the 1970s. A big difference between then and the present is the massive increase in the take-up of air conditioning. In hot periods daylight saving time means air conditioners tend to be run more when people arrive home from work, while in cooler periods more heating is used."
Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2010-03-daylight-energy.html#jCp
El modelo para investigarlo no es complejo, lo que es un lío, al menos en España, es conseguir los datos. De hecho yo dirigí un par de proyectos fin de carrera en los que quisimos evaluarlo, pero nunca conseguimos buenos datos, así que los resultados fueron más bien parciales. Ojalá algún día alguien nos pase buenos datos...
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