Innovación inducida y sus implicaciones para la transición energética

Un resumen de la literatura llevado a cabo por buenos amigos como Michael Grubb o Cristina Peñasco, entre otros.

El abstract:

We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.

El buen nudging no es tan sencillo

No sólo porque pueda resultar en acciones contrarias a las pretendidas, o porque sea excesivamente paternalista, o porque no logre mejorar el bienestar social...sino además, porque en un tema como este, la heterogeneidad de los decisores es fundamental, más que en otro tipo de actuaciones políticas. Esto es algo que ya se ha visto por ejemplo cuando se envían las facturas eléctricas de los vecinos: a los que consumen más les puede ayudar a reducir su consumo, pero a los que consumen menos les impulsan a aumentarlo. La personalización es por tanto muy importante, y no siempre es sencilla. Seguro que aquí el conocimiento empresarial (que personaliza mucho los mensajes, siempre tratando de capturar el mayor excedente del consumidor posible) ayudaría mucho. Y, por supuesto, nunca hay que olvidar los posibles problemas éticos asociados tanto al nudging como a su personalización...

Prospectiva de costes de hidrógeno, según IRENA

Un resumen breve pero ilustrativo de un informe reciente de IRENA de gran interés. Eso sí, el titular es un poco confuso: es cierto que las economías de escala de los electrolizadores permitirán que baje el coste...pero como se puede ver en las gráficas, la clave es el coste de la electricidad. En los análisis que estamos realizando este coste supone el 90% del coste total. Por tanto, lo fundamental es lograr electricidad renovable barata, y mejorar la eficiencia de conversión de los electrolizadores. Las economías de escala ayudarán, pero no tanto.

La gran pregunta, por supuesto, es si es factible lograr ese coste de 20€/MWh para la electricidad, de forma que el hidrógeno verde sea competitivo con el azul. Es cierto que a lo mejor no hace falta tanto, porque el hidrógeno azul se enfrenta a importantes barreras relacionadas con el almacenamiento o uso del CO2...pero en aquellos países con menos problemas con el CCUS, quizá lograr los 20 euros para la electricidad no sea tan sencillo (sobre todo si incluimos peajes, etc.)

Cómo descarbonizar el cemento - versión 2021

Un nuevo informe con propuestas para descarbonizar el cemento. Nada particularmente nuevo, pero da una buena visión global. Y claro, comparado con las propuestas de la industria, hace más énfasis en la sustitución del cemento por otros materiales con menores emisiones.

La US SEC también se pone seria sobre el disclosure climático

Al menos han abierto una consulta para regular esta cuestión, cada vez más relevante, y que en mi opinión tiene un gran potencial. Siempre, claro, que se haga bien y sin greenwashing.

Últimas novedades de DIW sobre industria, mercado eléctrico, y financiación sostenible

Karsten Neuhoff nos pone al día de lo que está haciendo en distintos frentes. En alguno de ellos (el de industria), en colaboración con nosotros.

1. For the industry sector, we have investigated with our European Partners of the Climate Friendly Materials Platform how individual policy instruments fit together and can thus unlock investments into climate neutrality. In the study “Green deal for industry: a clear policy framework is more important than funding” we combine the puzzle pieces into a policy package. Such a package can resolve conflicts that are otherwise difficult to address with individual instruments, for example between effective carbon pricing and carbon leakage protection or between empowering and committing companies or governments to act.

To inform this work, Xi Sun and Mats Kröger reviewed with colleagues at DIW the learning experience from previous green recovery packages and Olga Chiappinelli and Frederik Lettow quantified together with our European partners investment potentials and policy needs in the basic material sectors. Jörn Richstein analyzed with our Polish partners from Wise Europe how carbon contracts for difference can reduce financing costs and the carbon price required for investments in climate neutral processes.

Based on an earlier study on border carbon adjustments and alternative measures with Alice Pirlot, Oxford University, and Roland Ismer, University Nürnberg-Erlangen, we quantified with Stephan Pauliuk, Freiburg University, incentives and risks for the value chain and consumers. In the research supported by the Mistra foundation, we find very small and only progressive distributional effects. Applying a carbon leakage risk indicator to the value chain, we find potentially significant exposure where carbon border adjustment mechanisms focus only on imports or part of the value chain. In a study for the German Finance ministry on the National Emission Trading System, we find that carbon leakage risks are very limited and moderate outside of the basic materials sector.

2. For the power sector, a white paper for power market design with partners from the German science ministry funded Kopernikus Synergie research consortium points to elements that will be essential for the electricity spot market in the transition to climate neutrality, like bid formats and nodal pricing. These elements are particularly important for the realization and effective use of demand side flexibility as can be seen in our studies on industrial demand response by Jörn Richstein and on the role of aggregators in facilitating industrial demand response by Jan Stede.

In the context of the ongoing debates on the use of public budgets or carbon pricing revenues to reduce electricity charges, also alternative options to address distributional concerns should be considered. On behalf of the German Finance ministry, we assessed different options for per head reimbursement and considered existing structures of the German health insurance system most effective.

3. In sustainable finance, the EU taxonomy defines uniform criteria for economic activities aligned with EU climate mitigation targets. Franziska Schütze and Jan Stede used responses in a stakeholder consultation to assess the robustness of the taxonomy criteria in different sectors – raising the bigger question of how far the taxonomy can take us towards climate neutrality and what additional forward-looking information is required.

With the Sustainable Finance Advisory Group to the German government, which I am a member of, we recommended a variety of policy measure to ensure the financial sector can support the transformation of the real economy towards climate neutrality and sustainability. Forward looking reporting of firms, not only on their reference scenario, but also on a policy scenario (climate neutrality) with more stringent climate policy, is one key recommendation. This is essential for risk management as was illustrated in an analysis for residential mortgages by Franziska Schütze. But it also ensures that companies linked to carbon intensive activities can obtain access to finance – if they credibly demonstrate how their strategy is resilient to more stringent climate policy. Details are discussed in a policy brief with partners from the sustainable finance research platform funded by Mercator foundation.

4. How international climate finance can support just transitions to climate-friendly pathways is a question we investigate together with our partners of the Snapfi project in India, South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil with IKI funding from German environment ministry. A cross country study with 12 case studies coordinated by Heiner von Lüpke illustrates the multi-faceted interaction between the domestic policy levels and international climate finance. A review of the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on emerging economies captured the fragile status of countries’ green stimulus packages, and pointed to the role that international climate finance could play to enhance such green elements in domestic recovery strategies.

 

Las tecnologías del futuro, y las lecciones del pasado

 Como todos los años, MIT Tech Review selecciona las tecnologías con mayor potencial. Algunas, como las baterías de litio-metal, podría realmente acelerar la penetración del vehículo eléctrico, aunque todavía queda mucho por hacer. Otras, como el hidrógeno verde, están mucho más cerca.

Pero lo más interesante es el análisis que hacen de este mismo ejercicio hace 20 años.