miércoles, 27 de mayo de 2009

Papers de Weitzman sobre economía del cambio climático

Los últimos papers de Marty Weitzman, todos ellos con una pinta apasionante:

Some Basic Economics of Extreme Climate Change

by Martin L. Weitzman
- Climate change is characterized by deep structural uncertainty in the science coupled with an economic inability to evaluate meaningfully the welfare losses from high temperature changes. The probability of a disastrous collapse of planetary welfare from too much CO2 is non-negligible, even if this low probability is not objectively knowable. This paper attempts to explain (in not excessively technical language) some of the most basic issues in modeling the economics of catastrophic climate change. The paper builds to a tentative conclusion that, no matter what else is done realistically to slow CO2 buildups, economic analysis lends some support to undertaking serious research now into the prospects of fast geoengineering preparedness as a state-contingent emergency option offering at least the possibility of knocking down catastrophic temperatures rapidly.


Reactions to the Nordhaus Critique

by Martin L. Weitzman
- In this paper I comment on the reactions of William Nordhaus to a recent article of mine entitled "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change" that appeared in the February 2009 issue of the Review of Economics and Statistics. My target audience here is PhD-level general economists, but this paper could also be viewed as a somewhat less technical supplement to my article, which some interested non-economist readers might conceivably find useful on its own account.
Weitzman, M.L. (2009). "Reactions to the Nordhaus Critique." Harvard University, Mimeo, March 2009.


Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting

by Martin L. Weitzman
- This paper in applied theory argues that there is a loose chain of reasoning connecting the following three basic links in the economics of climate change: 1) additive damages may be more appropriate for analyzing the impacts of global warming than multiplicative damages; 2) an uncertain feedback-forcing coefficient, which might be near one with infinitesimal probability, can cause the distribution of the future time trajectory of global temperatures to have fat tails and a high variance; 3) when high-variance additive damages are discounted at an uncertain rate of pure time preference, which might be near zero with infinitesimal probability, it can make expected present discounted disutility very large. Some possible implications for welfare analysis and climate-change policy are briefly noted.
Weitzman, M.L. (2009). "Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting." Harvard University, Mimeo, April 2009.


Gracias a Climate ChangeS

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